Paul Watts

Our world is changing faster than ever before.  The digital data revolution is transforming the way we communicate, the way we shop and the way we live. 

One consequence of this is an explosion of data.  We’re collecting more and more of it with each passing month.  Data about our online behaviour, our interests, our opinions and just about every imaginable aspect of our daily lives. When cleverly used it provides a powerful and timely understanding of customer needs, leading to more effective decision making.

However, all this is not a silver bullet.  Understanding the challenges and limitations of digital data as well as its benefits is critical for getting the most out of it.

Differentiating between data types

Whether we are talking about digital data or data collected offline, we should start by drawing a distinction between observational data and attitudinal data.

• Observational data:  This comes from the observation of behaviour.  In that sense it is an actual record of genuine consumer behaviour in a real-world setting.

• Attitudinal data:  This encompasses any form of stated opinion or sentiment.  It represents the expressed preferences, likes and dislikes of customers.  It may or may not reflect actual behaviour, but it does represent a customer’s articulation of their view of the world.

What vs Why

In the past (especially pre-digital) measuring actual consumer behaviour through observation was very challenging.  Most brands only possessed partial data of this sort, perhaps only on an unrepresentative sub-set of their customers.  Such gaps could only usually be plugged (if at all) with expensive market research surveys.  Even then, the foibles of human memory limited the reliability of such information.

But now observational data collected digitally provides far greater granularity in terms of what consumers are doing online, as well as when, and how.

However, to fully understand such behaviour, we usually need to additionally explore why people are behaving in a certain way.  Sometimes observational data can help shed light on this.  We can deduce some of the reasons for specific decisions based on the relationships we find in the data.  However, sometimes this is not possible.  And sometimes it might be difficult to tell whether we are seeing causation or just correlation. 

This is where attitudinal data becomes important – where customers overtly tell us the ‘why’ behind their decisions.  This kind of data also has its limitations.  However, when used in combination with observational data, it can provide us with powerful insight.

Observational and attitudinal data are clearly quite different.  Each offers us different forms of insight.  Indeed, there is a lot to be said about both.  So, in this blog piece, I’ll be focusing mainly on attitudinal data (and leaving a discussion of observational data to my next piece).

Opinion and sentiment

In a digital context, attitudinal data will consist of consumer opinions expressed on social media, product reviews and recommendations and so forth.

Social media listening tools of various kinds can trawl through the web looking for this kind of data.  This builds up a picture of sentiment and draws attention to key opinions about brand image and performance. 

It can be very useful, but it clearly has potential drawbacks:

• It may not be a representative view of the market.  Most social media platforms will have their skews and biases in terms of who engages with them.
• There is a danger we’re listening to the opinions of a vocal minority.  But, what about the silent majority?
• As a significant amount of information is not volunteered anonymously (as it would be on a survey) many people are only willing to say what they are happy to put their names to.  They will often avoid volunteering opinions they feel might be unpopular or controversial.

Despite this, it nevertheless offers clear advantages in terms of ease of access, data volume, and the relatively low cost of data acquisition. 

Using digital data to measure sentiment

But just how accurate is sentiment analysis using digital data of this sort?  How can we gauge its reliability?

For those on a tight budget who want some answers fast it might be the only option.  For this reason, it becomes more important to understand just how reliable it is.  And critically, how can we use it wisely?

The answer here is a complex one.  It rather depends on what digital data we are talking about and how we want to use it.  It would be as naïve to dismiss it as entirely as it would be to accept it unquestioningly.

Let’s take one simple question as an illustration: “Can sentiment data on social media be used to predict an election result?”  And, if we attempt to do so, is it any more (or less) accurate than an opinion survey?

Can Twitter predict elections?

In one German study published in Social Science Computer Review, in 2013, the conclusion was that Twitter was a poor predictor of overall population sentiment.  The Twitter population was found to contain significant biases that made it unrepresentative.  That, coupled with the crude nature of sentiment analysis tools at that time, rendered it a poor predictor for an election.

A more recent and comprehensive study (2020) has shown that things have moved on since then.  As sentiment analysis tools have improved and by using them in combination with socio-economic modelling, it was possible to predict the 2016 US election results in a single state with 81% accuracy. 

That’s an improvement but, as the study observed, there’s still a way to go.  Accuracy only became reasonable with the application of more advanced tools and modelling techniques.  Standard solutions available at the time of the study would not cut it.

The population biases in the Twitter community are still not fully understood and the data that can be harvested from it is incomplete.  It was also noted that sentiment analytics still struggles to cope with more nuanced comment.  So digital analytics and data harvesting is getting better but still has some way to go.

The value of attitudinal digital data

Although we might have a way to go before we can realistically use digital data to predict elections, that does not mean it has no merit (or that it won’t eventually get there).

It can still tell us a lot about what people are thinking and what they like/dislike about a particular product or service.  It can still help us form hypotheses about our brand image or the reasons behind customer satisfaction / dissatisfaction. 

Its value is even greater if we bear in mind that we are dealing with inherently anecdotal data.

But how can such a large volume of information be inherently anecdotal you may well ask? 

The reality is that opinions about products and services expressed online are representative only of the opinion of a vocal minority.  That does not mean it is not useful.  It can provide us with insight into the spectrum of different views and opinions about a particular brand or service.  In that sense it can do for us a similar job to a focus group (although it might potentially be less representative). 

So we can still make use such data, if we bear in mind that we are dealing with a self-selected sample and treat it accordingly.

Self-selection

One of the problems identified by studies of social media platforms is that active users on these platforms represent a sub-set of the population.  Potentially (but not necessarily always) this is a highly unrepresentative sub-set. 

To use information from such an audience, we need to understand the composition of the population and mitigate any built-in biases (a potentially complex task).  If we cannot, then it may well be misleading to attempt to use the data quantitatively.  But we can still use it qualitatively. 

By using it qualitatively, I mean it can give us a good idea of the spectrum of different opinions that exist out there in the market.  It cannot tell us how commonly held these opinions are in relation to each other in the wider population.  But it can give us a sense of the kind of things people are thinking and saying.

This, in fact, may well give us enough information to design a market research survey to quantify the prevalence of these opinions with a truly representative sample.

The digital data elephant in the room

A growing challenge in the digital world (and often the elephant in the room) is the impact of bots and false actors.  This might affect everything from measures of hits to websites, through to opinion spam, fake recommendations, and bogus ratings. 

As consumers become more aware of this phenomenon their behaviour will change accordingly.  Already some are now more wary of glowing product reviews.  Someone recently told me they now ignore five-star reviews as they are “probably written by employees of the company”.

Elon Musk’s recent controversial exit from his Twitter acquisition was ostensibly driven by his belief that up to 20% of Twitter accounts are fake (Twitter would argue it’s under 5%).  The true number is extremely difficult to measure and, of course, this problem does not only affect Twitter but all social media.

Bots and false actors

However, the absolute number of bots on a social media platform is not the key point here.  It is what the bots are doing that really matters.  For example, one analysis showed that the proportion of bots actively disseminating information about cryptocurrencies was far higher than the numbers engaged in discussions about cats.

We are not just talking about bots here.  There are also false actors to consider.  Such accounts are real people, but the identities are false (or misrepresented).  A simple example would be someone writing a review pretending to be a customer when they are the seller using a false identity. When it comes to matters of political opinion, false actors of this sort already represent a significant problem.

Distinguishing genuine public opinion from false actors (bots or human) is a challenge that needs continual vigilance.  It can muddy the waters of any attitudinal data appearing online.  My guess is that tackling this challenge will be one of the most important tasks facing the digital world over the next decade.

Missing information

One of the limitations of attitudinal data available online is simply that we are restricted to using what is available.  Here there are four specific constraints that brands may encounter:

• People create the content they feel is important – not necessarily what brands need to know.  The fact that this content is a spontaneous offering of customer opinion is a real boon.  However, sometimes brands want to know things about their markets that few people are openly discussing.
• Large, well-known, brands are likely to attract significant online comment.  They will therefore have access to a large pool of data from which they can draw insight.  However, smaller or more niche brands are less likely to be discussed online and therefore have access to less data.
• Most online discussions concern the here and now and the immediately foreseeable future.  People aren’t going to comment on future products and services they are not yet aware of. 
• Finally, people like to discuss things that interest and engage them online.  Hence there is more discussion of cats than there is of insurance policies.

Depending on the market, the brand and the category, the amount of valuable content available to harvest will clearly vary.  Sometimes there will be gaps.  Sometimes those gaps will be significant.

When we need to turn to market research

Despite its limitations, attitudinal digital data certainly has its place.  It may not be perfect but sometimes we don’t need perfect.  Sometimes getting a rough idea cheaply and quickly will give us 80% of what we need.

However, sometimes attitudinal digital data can’t give us what we need.  Sometimes it is simply too unrepresentative.  Sometimes it is too incomplete.  And sometimes the issues we need to know about are simply not being discussed.  That’s when we need to turn to market research.

When it comes to measuring sentiment and opinion, a market research survey provides the best way to fill in such gaps. 

Both market research and digital analytics have their place, and it is not an either/or choice.  Sometimes using both in combination will deliver the best results.

The power of ‘observed’ digital data

However, the real strength of the digital information available to us today lies in data that is purely observational rather than attitudinal. 

Measurement of actual consumer behaviour online, that leads directly to an online purchase, represents an irrefutable record of genuine buying decisions.  Such direct observation of buyer behaviour at scale provides us with a wealth of insight that was simply unavailable prior to the digital age.

Next time, I’ll be taking a closer look at observational data.  I’ll be considering what it can tell us, its strengths and the potential pitfalls we should look out for when working with it.

About Us

Synchronix Research offers a full range market research services and market research training.  We can also provide technical content writing services.

You can read more about us on our website.  

You can catch up with our past blog articles here.

If you like to get in touch, please email us.

Sources, references & further reading:

Can We Forecast Presidential Election Using Twitter Data? An Integrative Modelling Approach – Ruowei Liu

Trying to predict the election? Forget about Twitter, study concludes, Guardian 2016

How many bots are on Twitter? The question is difficult to answer and misses the point.  May 2022. The Conversation.

Restrictions lifting

In the UK the government has recently relaxed covid restrictions imposed to contain the spread of the Omicron variant.  We have been told that the limitations imposed in recent weeks have worked.

The vaccination programme which ran through the course of last year brought us all hope of some light at the end of the tunnel.  But just as we were thinking it might all be over, along came Omicron. 

Case numbers rose significantly over the Christmas period as the new strain took its toll, and hospitalisation numbers soon followed suit.

Now that we have enough data to better assess the impact of Omicron, it seems like a good time to take a fresh look at the numbers and see what they tell us.

Bad news

The bad news is that the rise in case numbers has caused hospitalisations and (sadly) deaths, to spike once more.  The number of new hospitalisations reported each day is currently higher than at any time since the end of January 2021.  The current spike in admissions now ranks as one of three major peaks of the pandemic. 

Fortunately, it looks like new cases and the hospital admission numbers are now starting to flatten and potentially reduce.  If current trends continue, this recent wave will end up being nowhere near as a deadly as the earlier peaks.

Good News

The good news is that the protection afforded by vaccination appears to be working – and working well.  Omicron has not only caused case numbers to spike but has caused them to spike to levels that are truly unprecedented.  Yet, despite this, the levels of serious illness recorded are surprisingly low.

A look at the government data tells us that during the first 10 days of January this year an average of nearly 145,000 people were diagnosed with covid every single day.  That is a significantly higher infection rate than we have seen in any previous wave; nearly three times the level that we were seeing in the same ten-day period for January 2021 (the peak of the previous wave).

However, there is cause for cautious optimism.  The average for new infections during the first ten days of January 2022 is actually a little lower than the average for the last ten days of December 2021.  The most recent data suggests that numbers of new cases look to be on the decline.  Let’s hope this trend continues.

Fewer hospitalisations and deaths

But whilst case numbers have reached record highs, the numbers of hospitalisations and deaths certainly have not.  The first ten days of January witnessed an average hospital admission rate of 2,230 covid patients per day.  That is significantly less than the average of 3,935 we saw during the last peak.  So, a near threefold increase in case numbers is now resulting in a much lower rate of serious illness. 

Put simply, if you get a covid diagnosis now, you are five times less likely to end up in hospital than if you’d been diagnosed with covid this time last year.

The news in terms of deaths rates also looks promising.  Despite the higher overall infection rates, death rates are now a fraction of past peak levels.  The average number of deaths recorded per day in early January was 205, compared to a number more than four times higher from a much lower infection rate at the start of 2021. 

As a result, you are 12 times less likely to die of covid if you get infected now, than was the case this time last year. However, that statistic does come with one very important caveat – vaccination.

Vaccination works

Vaccination has played a critical role in keeping hospitalisation and death rates low over the past month or so. 

The success of the vaccination programme does mask some disturbing statistics, however.  The population as a whole is certainly seeing significantly lower rates of hospitalisation and fatalities from covid.  But this is only true amongst those who are vaccinated. 

For the unvaccinated minority, the story is much bleaker.

The Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre recorded that 61% of the patients admitted to critical care in December 2021 with confirmed covid-19 were unvaccinated. 

Government data shows that just 9.4% of the total population is now unvaccinated.  That means that 9.4% of the population account for 61% of the most seriously ill patients. 

Clearly, the lack of vaccine protection makes people significantly more vulnerable to serious illness and death.

The truth is, if you are unvaccinated, you are 15 times more likely to end up in an intensive care unit with covid-19 than someone who is vaccinated.

Weathering the storm

As January 2022 wears on, it looks increasingly likely that we have weathered the storm of the Omicron wave.  A milder (if considerably more infectious) strain, combined with widespread vaccination, has limited the impact of the third wave.

Death rates and hospitalisation rates are far lower than in previous waves.  Nevertheless, the sheer number of infections has placed significant strains on the NHS and that is a problem that we shouldn’t ignore.

That said, the data shows beyond doubt that the vaccination programme is working.  We can afford to be hopeful about the future.

About Us

Synchronix Research offers a full range market research services and market research training.  We can also provide technical content writing services.

You can read more about us on our website.  

You can catch up with our past blog articles here.

If you like to get in touch, please email us.

Sources

BMJ

UK Government coronavirus statistics

When designing a marketing campaign, one of the first questions that needs answering is ‘who’s my target audience?’

A good understanding of target demographics (or firmographics in b2b markets) is usually a good starting point but it can only get you so far!

Many people who share the same demographics have very different needs and preferences.  And the more precisely you’re able to define your target audience the more effective your marketing campaign is likely to be.

Beyond demographics

Basic demographics might tell us that 99% of our past customers are female and aged 25-49.  Or, if we sell b2b, we might be able to say that most of our customers are SME engineering businesses.  But clearly, not all women aged 25-49 (or SME engineering businesses for that matter) are interested in our product.  So, it’s getting a step beyond this that’s often the problem.

So, how might we sharpen our focus to ensure we are targeting the right people with the right messages.

What we need is to develop a profile that includes other useful information. It might tell us something useful about how they like to buy that could affect the way in which we sell.  Or, perhaps it might tell us something about their interests that helps us to design a more effective advertising message.

Knowing what is likely to interest and engage our target audience is key.  It helps us make important decisions about messaging and message placement. 

This all sounds great in theory, but it is not without its challenges.

Pitfalls

I’m sure we’ve all heard some ‘marketing persona’ horror stories.

The trouble is that once you go beyond demographics you are looking at increasingly intangible things.  This makes it harder to pinpoint exactly what you need to focus on and what is, frankly, not relevant.

Typical problems in these cases might well include:

• It becomes hard to see the wood for the trees, as you have so much detail. 
• You can create some great looking personas but, when it comes to actioning them, it’s hard to see how they help you design and execute a marketing campaign.
• With several different persona types, it looks sensible but …  you struggle to see how or why you can practically approach these groups any differently from each other.

In essence, you end up with information that you can’t action.

So how can you get it right?

Having a clear business goal

It may seem obvious but having some clear overall business objectives in mind before you even start is a critical first step. 

A vague objective like “we need to improve our marketing communications” is not only going to make it hard to define your target audience, but it also makes the design of any marketing messages very challenging.  And, of course, it makes it very difficult to measure the success of any marketing campaign.

Often the objective might simply be to boost sales.  That has the merit of being tangible, but sometimes there might be more to it than that. 

Perhaps we’ve identified our brand has an image problem with certain customers?  If this is the case, we might want to look at which customers these are and why, so that we can address these issues directly. 

Perhaps we want to attract more customers of a particular type (e.g. higher margin)?  That means we need to understand what makes these people different from other customers and how we can engage with more of them.

Our business objectives determine what kind of information we need to consider or collect to better understand our target audience.

Deciding what we need to know and why

Once we have our objectives clearly in mind, we can start to make some choices in terms of the kind of information we need.

Clearly, we are going to want to look at buyer behaviour, preferences, attitudes, and interests.  But we can’t look at everything!  So, we need to set some rules early on in terms of what’s relevant.

Ultimately, when the chips are down, we only need to know three specific things about our audience:

• Who are the people I need to target?  And,
• How do I reach them?  And,
• How best can I engage with them?

A good marketing agency can certainly help with these, especially the latter two.  However, the more focused your brief, the easier it will be for them to get it right. 

So, you need to define your target audience but only in terms of information that sheds light on these three key questions – not in terms of everything!

Knowing that someone has a particular hobby is potentially interesting.  But what do we do with that information?  Does it help us assess whether we should be selling to them or not?  Can it help us target them more directly?  Does it help us design a message that engages them more effectively?  If the answer to those three questions is ‘no’, then, interesting or not, it is useless information since it is not actionable.

On the other hand, if, for example, we were considering whether to sponsor a sporting event, it could help us a lot to know how popular that sport was in our target audience.  If it is only 5% then sponsorship is hardly worth it.  If it is 90% on the other hand, then sponsorship looks like a good investment!  Then the information becomes actionable.

The key thing is to make sure that each piece of information we consider (or try to collect) has the potential to be directly related to one of our three key questions.

Information gaps

Sometimes it is possible to create a detailed, meaningful, profile of our target audience just with the information we already have.  The results of past marketing campaign activities, customer interactions with salesmen and CRM records might all help you build up a picture of your target audience.

However, sometimes you might find that there are gaps in your knowledge or aspects of customer behaviour that you simply don’t understand. 

Maybe you have some of what you need buried in your CRM somewhere that just needs digging out.  But maybe it’s information you just don’t have.  This is where market research can come in; helping to plug any gaps and provide the answers to anything you might be missing.

Developing meaningful audience personas

It is one thing having information – it is quite another making effective use of it.

Pulling it all together and sifting out what is important from what is not is an important step in itself.  The last thing you want is to end up in a situation where information overload prevents effective action.  During this sifting process it is key to keep referring to our three key questions.

One of the reasons these exercises can sometimes run into problems is when people go overboard and (for reasons ultimately unclear) develop numerous different marketing personas, each of which represents a different potential target segment.

Before you start going down that road, ask yourself this – do I even need that?

It is all too easy to divide your audience up into different audience personas.  However, although they may indeed be different in very real and measurable ways, the question is are they different in a meaningful way?  This come back to our three key tests – should I target these people?  How do I reach them? What should I say to them?  If the answers to these three questions is the same for all the different personas you create, then it is pointless having all these different personas. 

Perhaps you only need one target audience persona – unless there is a tangible business reason for having more than one, there is no need to over complicate things.  Developing multiple personas can provide valuable insight when it’s actionable but is nothing more than a confusing distraction when it’s not.

Success Criteria

When you arrive a definition of your target audience, there are some key things you need to check to make sure it’s on the right track.  More specifically, ask yourself; is it…

• Identifiable: your definition of your target audience has a distinct / characteristic mindset that sets them apart from everyone else.
• Significant:  it may sound obvious but there is little point in defining a target audience that only represents 1% of your market!
• Reachable: You need to have a good idea of how to reach your audience.
• Differentiated: Your target audience needs to be clearly differentiated from the rest of the market.  Also, IF you have ended up with more than one target persona, you need to be able to differentiate between them.
• Actionable: i.e. it helps you design and execute a marketing campaign.
• Has sustained relevance: you need to be confident personas aren’t based on passing fads that won’t apply two months down the line.

If your able to define your target audience in those terms, you can really make your marketing campaign a lot more focused and effective.  

About Us

Synchronix Research is a full-service market research agency.  If you have any questions about our services or would like to explore the concept of creating meaningful audience profiles further, please get in touch.

You can email us with any questions; we’d be more than happy to hear from you.

Christmas approaches. 

With Omicron now looming we once again find ourselves facing uncertain times. 

But we shouldn’t let the Omicron grinch ruin our Christmas.  And so, this blog aims to be a bit more festive in the hopes of raising our spirits – at least a bit! 

Let’s try to think, instead, about all the things we love about Christmas.  Christmas day, Christmas dinner, Santa, nativity scenes, Christmas trees and spending time with our family.

In thinking about these things, it suddenly occurred to me – how did all these things come together to make a modern Christmas?

What makes Christmas Christmassy?

Well, Christmas is obviously a Christian festival to celebrate the birth of Christ.  I think we all get that bit.  So, it’s easy to see how the nativity fits in. 

But what about the rest of it? 

Santa?  A jolly man in a red suit from the North Pole?  I’m not sure what he would have been doing in 1st century Bethlehem.  Reindeers?  You don’t see many of those in the middle east.  Come to think of it, I’m pretty sure turkey and Xmas pud weren’t on the menu at the Bethlehem inn.

So how did we end up with the Christmas we have today?  Where did all these seemingly unrelated ‘trimmings’ come from, I wondered?

Well as I am a researcher, I should be able to find that out!

Christmas Day

Christmas day falls on 25^th December.  This is the day when we celebrate Christ’s birthday.  But wait.  How do we know he was born on that day?  The Bible itself does not actually say when he was born.  So where do we get that date from?

The earliest record we have of Christmas being officially celebrated on December 25^th was in 336 AD.  It was just after the Roman Emperor Constantine had converted to Christianity.  So why did the Romans pick that day?

Well, as it turns out, December was a popular time of year for festivals.  The pagan Germans celebrated Yule at around this time and the Romans themselves had Saturnalia.

Saturnalia, by Constantine’s time, ran from 17^th to 23^rd December.  It was a festival of the Roman God Saturn.  It was typically celebrated with banquets, private gift giving and general drunkenness.  Sound familiar?

Constantine’s new Christian regime was no doubt keen to ween people off their pagan beliefs and festivals.  So perhaps that might explain why 25^th December was picked as the official day to hold a mass to mark the birth of Christ.  Or perhaps it just seemed like an obvious time of year to have a festival.

Whatever their thinking, the Romans picked 25^th December as the official date for Christmas Day from 336 AD onwards.

Santa

So, how does a jolly North Pole dweller with a penchant for chimney potholing and distributing gifts to children find himself in Bethlehem at the time of Christ’s birth?

Well, obviously, he didn’t.  But don’t worry – Santa is real!

Or, at least, Saint Nicholas was real.  Saint Nicholas was born in Turkey (not the North Pole) in 270 AD.  He is officially the patron saint of sailors, merchants, archers, repentant thieves, children, brewers, pawnbrokers, unmarried people, and students.  That’s a lot to look after if you are also expected to dish out presents to every child on earth in just one night every year.

Saint Nick famously inherited a large amount of cash from his parents when they died.  However, being a devout Christian, he took all the teachings about the potential evils of wealth very seriously and decided the best thing to do was to give the money away to the poor and needy.  But he didn’t want to be tempted with pride by taking the credit for his charitable acts, so he distributed the cash at night, hooded and cloaked.

Never went near the north pole.  Probably never saw a reindeer.  Elves?  Right out.

How Saint Nick became ‘Santa’

Anyway, in 1087 AD (we think) the Spanish brought the celebration of Saint Nick’s saint’s day to the Netherlands.  In the Netherlands, they called him Sinterklaas – from which we get “Santa Claus”.  It was the Dutch who seem to have taken the gift giving aspect of Saint Nick’s story one step further and added tales about him riding across the rooftops (on a grey horse rather than in a sleigh) dishing out presents to kids.

Originally his saint’s day was set on 6^th December – close enough to Christmas for him to eventually become a part of the main event. 

‘Father Christmas’

Meanwhile over the channel, in England, the English invented a character they came to call “Father Christmas”.  The earliest record of this was a carol written by the Reverend Richard Smart; most likely published sometime during the 1460s or perhaps the early 1470s.

In this carol the Rev. Smart mentioned a character called ‘Sir Christmas’ who announces Christ’s birth and encourages those who heard the good news to ‘make good cheer and be right merry’.  The good Reverend Smart was certainly an optimist since the War of the Roses was raging all around him when he wrote it!

By the time of Henry VIII, the character of Father Christmas was well established in England.  By that stage he was usually depicted as a large man dressed in robes of green or scarlet.

At some time – no one really knows exactly when – the image of Father Christmas and Sinterklaas blended together in an English-Dutch fusion to create the Santa Claus we know and love today.

Santa gets his sleigh

When Europeans began to settle the Americas in significant numbers, they brought their various Christmas stories and traditions with them.  And so it was that Santa first acquired his sleigh and his reindeer not in the North Pole, but in New York! 

In early 19th century New York, the image of Santa riding in a sleigh pulled by reindeer first appeared.   The grey horse had obviously been traded in for the sleigh and reindeer but, aside from this, New York’s Santa was the same Santa inherited from England and the Netherlands. 

An academic by the name of Clement Clarke Moore was the specific New Yorker most directly responsible for popularising the new look Santa.  He wrote a poem about Santa and his sleigh in 1823, even going so far as to give all the reindeer their names. 

It all had little to do with 3rd century Turkey, but it soon became very popular – so popular that Moore’s image of Santa with his reindeer and his sleigh stuck. 

And where do you find reindeer?  Well obviously, in places like Lapland of course!  And so it was that Santa found a home in the North Pole – all thanks to a New York Professor of Oriental and Greek Literature.

Christmas Trees

Evergreen firs are most common in northern climes, so not necessarily an obvious choice of tree for a Bethlehem scene.  So, how did Christmas trees get in on the act? 

In more pagan times evergreen trees were viewed as a symbol of life in mid-winter.  They appeared to thrive at a time when other plants died.  However, they weren’t necessarily associated with any festival.  This came much later.

There is one story that says the tradition of decorating trees for Christmas started with Martin Luther – the 16th century founder of Protestantism.  The tale goes that he was walking home one night and was awestruck by the sight of stars shining through the trees above.  He apparently decided to re-create the effect at home for his family by decorating fir trees with candles.

Whether this is true or not, the custom of decorating a Christmas tree began around this time in Germany.  However, they were not universally accepted as part of the Christmas tradition by any means.  In the 17th century, many puritans in both America and England disapproved – denouncing them as a “heathen” practice.  But 200 years later, when Queen Victoria (another German) allowed herself and her family to be sketched enjoying a family Christmas around one, they became firmly established as part of Christmas tradition.

Christmas Pudding

The very earliest Christmas puddings appeared in 14th century England.  Originally, they were a kind of porridge called “frumenty” – a savoury dish made from meat mixed with wines and fruits.  It was eaten during the preparations for Christmas but not as part of the day itself.

By the 16th century, tastes changed and it became more of a sweet pudding than a savoury dish.  Dried fruit had become more readily available and were increasingly used as a standard ingredient.

It wasn’t served as a standard dessert for Christmas Day until around 1650.  By this time, it was called “plum pudding” and much more like the recipes we use today.  The puritans of course tried to ban it on the grounds that it was “sinfully rich” in flavour.  They were probably right, but that doesn’t stop us from eating it these days!

Christmas Turkey

Turkeys were first brought to England in the early 16th century via Spanish merchants returning from South America.

There was an advantage in eating turkeys in the winter rather than killing a cow or a chicken.  A cow could provide milk through the cold months if kept alive and a chicken could provide far more eggs than a turkey.  This meant that turkeys presented a very attractive alternative for a hearty mid-winter meal.

Henry VIII was the first person to specifically include turkey in a Christmas feast.  Before then such feasts had typically included geese, boars’ heads and even peacocks!

So, this is Christmas

As it turns out, the Christmas we know today is a truly international creation – blending traditions and stories from a diverse mix of different countries and peoples. 

Romans, Dutch, Germans, English, Turks, Americans, and Spanish have all contributed their own traditions to the Christmas story.  Everyone from American academics to Turkish Saints and English Kings have all played their part.

Christmas really is for everyone!

So, raise a glass this festive season and take the advice of the good Rev. Smart to ‘make good cheer and be right merry’.

Merry Christmas everyone! 

About Us

Synchronix Research offers market research and content writing services. 

You can read more about us on our website.  

You can catch up with our past blog articles here.

If you like to get in touch, please email us.

Sources

Britannica

Christianity.com

History.com

Pudforallseasons.com.au

Squaremeal.co.uk

Thefactsite.com

Wikipedia – Saint Nicholas

Wikipedia – Saturnalia

These days, it seems as though virtually everything is rapidly going digital. But, as it turns out, not so much when it comes to books.

That is not to say that ebooks and downloaded audiobooks have not enjoyed significant success in recent years.  But, despite all this, the fact remains that paper formats remain highly popular.

Paper remains king

Figures from the Association of American Publishers show that ebooks and download digital audio combined to account of just 16.5% of book revenues (for consumer publications) in September 2021.  The market, in cash dollar terms, is still dominated by paper.

Some have pointed out that such figures probably exaggerate the position of physical books.  AAP figures come from major publishing houses that tend to be more paper reliant.  The self-published/indie market generates a higher proportion of digital sales that is not represented in their figures. 

Also, digital format books are usually sold for a significantly lower revenue per unit than paper.  So, volume share and revenue share will be very different animals.

However, even if we take account of these factors, print still accounts for the largest share of the market.  Estimates from the bookseller place ebooks as accounting for something closer to 19% of the market value and 36% of the volume in 2019.  You would need to add to that the share taken by the growing audible market.  Nevertheless, it’s still clear that paper remains very popular.

Why do paper books remain so popular?

Given so many other sectors have ‘gone digital’ so quickly, the ongoing resilience of the paper book market requires some explanation.

An obvious question to ask is whether this is a generational thing?  In many aspects of modern life, the older age groups have proven more reluctant to move to digital.  The same factor is likely at work here – but that does not fully explain why the non-digital option remains so popular in this market compared to others.

Others might point to the fact that there are people who struggle to read books in digital form.  Some people don’t like screen reading and some even some find that screen reading gives them headaches.  No doubt this is an issue for some but surely not that many.  Also, screen issues would not serve as a barrier for download audio.

Another factor is the fact that you rent digital books – you don’t own them.  Some people may object to this on principle and stick with paper as a result.  But how many people are even aware that they don’t own the books stored on their ebook reader? 

Of course, practically speaking, a paper book requires no battery and as you can only read one book at a time, it is almost as easy to carry around as a digital version.  So, in that sense, the e-version offers only a minimal advantage.

Emotional appeal

People do take practical considerations into account when making buying decisions, but much of our consumer behaviour is driven by emotional need rather than simple logic.  So, perhaps paper books continue to have appeal because they are, in and of themselves, appealing as a physical product.  Fans of the format like it because it has a tangibility and an aesthetic appeal in and of itself. 

The pleasure of storing a book on a shelf or of building a physical library may provide an emotional motive for preferring paper to digital for some.  The satisfaction of signposting your literary tastes to others on a train or in a coffee shop, by displaying the cover of your chosen read may also be a factor.  Even the sensory feel of a physical book may provide a subconscious motive for sticking with paper.

Preference is not an either/or choice

We asked 119 fiction readers about their preferred formats for fiction this autumn.  The results revealed that, for many people at least, it is not always an either-or choice when it comes to buying ebooks vs print.

68% say they enjoy reading fiction in ebook form but 71% also expressed an affinity for paper.  There is considerable overlap here.  Indeed, 42% of readers say they enjoy reading both ebooks and paper books.  29% express a preference for paper but not for ebooks and 26% prefer ebooks to paper.

Clearly then, 42% of the market would happily consider buying a book in either format depending on the book and the situation.

Younger readers are more open to new formats

It is true that younger readers are more willing to try newer formats.  80% of the under 45s enjoy ebooks, compared to 62% of the over 45s.  Younger readers are also more likely to be willing to try audio books (30% of the under 45s like this format, compared to 19% of the over 45s).

Paper remains a highly popular format regardless of age.  Younger readers remain significant fans of paper books and show no signs of abandoning the format any time soon.  Indeed, they are no less likely to express a fondness for paper than older readers.

Higher volume readers rely more on ebooks

If we take a look at people who say they ‘love’ reading ebooks and compare them with other people who are less keen we see some behavioural differences worth considering.

eBook lovers do tend to read more (although it is important to note that some of this will be consumed in paper form as well as digital).  71% said they read ‘very often’ as compared to just 44% of other readers. 

Naturally, if you are consuming a higher volume of books then opting for an ebook format makes more sense.  For one thing, ebooks are less expensive, so acquiring them in volume would work out at a significant saving vs paper. 

Also, if you are reading more then you are likely to be getting through more books in a shorter time frame.  Hence, whilst you are travelling, ebook readers make it easier to carry more books with you.  If you are reading less, then it’s unlikely you need to carry more than one book with you.  In fact, an infrequent reader might not see the need to carry books around at all, opting to read only when at home in bed.

The desired reading experience

However, we did find evidence to show that format preference may well be influenced by emotional/aesthetic appeal of the format rather than practicalities or demographics.  The kind of reading experience a reader is looking for influences whether they might choose to read a book in a paper or ebook form.

ebook lovers were more likely to say that they enjoyed reading books with comforting themes (32% expressed a preference for this experience, compared to only 16% of other readers).

On the other hand, ebook lovers were much less likely (7% vs 27%) to express a strong attraction to books that covered unsettling themes that really made them think. 

Could it therefore be that the electronic form exerts a greater appeal for situations where readers are looking for a relaxing and comforting reading experience?  By contrast, could the desire for paper have greater appeal in situations where a more thoughtful and challenging reading experience is desired?

There may, of course, be other emotional drivers that may cause a reader to pick paper over digital (or vice versa) that we have not yet had the opportunity to fully explore.  But it is nevertheless clear that consumer choice is dictated by factors other than practicality and function.

Digital won’t replace paper any time soon

Paper format books remain highly popular.  Significant numbers of younger readers (the majority in fact) continue to enjoy reading paper books.  So, we can safely say that we won’t be seeing any rapid migration to digital led by younger readers any time soon.

Paper continues to have enduring appeal – an appeal that may well transcend any practical advantages of the digital format and which is actually more deep rooted in the emotional experience of engaging with a paper book.

For these reasons any migration to purely digital consumption is likely to be slow.  Maybe, in time, it will accelerate.  Perhaps concerns of the environmental impact of consuming paper books might eventually tip the balance in favour of digital. But that’s something for the longer-term future.  For the immediate future, paper looks set to remain a key format.

About Us

Synchronix is a full-service market research agency.  We believe in using market research to help our clients understand how best to prepare for the future. 

You can read more about us on our website.  

If you wish to follow our weekly blog you can view all out past articles on our website here.

If you have any specific questions about our services, please contact us.

Sources

Association of American Publishers

CNBC

The Bookseller

Synchronix Market Research