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Hands holding tablet and watching Youtube

The Visual Communications Age

Leave a Comment / Consumer behaviour, Gaming, Market Research / By

The past few years has seen a boom in visual communications across social media.  An estimated 2.3 billion people now use YouTube every month.  Instagram and TikTok have around 1 billion monthly users each.

Visual social media of this kind – be it in the form of still images or video clips – are transforming the way in which we communicate.  Part of this change is simply a function of accessibility.  Technology has made it far easier for people to create visual images and make short video clips and mini films than ever was the case, even ten years ago.  And now there are more social media outlets than ever before where it is possible to publish such material.

It is incredible to think that twenty years ago Facebook, YouTube and Twitter did not even exist.  How much the world has changed!

However, we should not be tempted to think that social media platforms will continue to grow forever.  There is a finite limit to the number of users any platform can attract, after all.  Like in any other market, market growth will inevitably give way to market maturity at some point.

Platform maturity

Facebook’s owner Meta Platforms recently recorded a record daily loss on the stock market.  This came in the wake of the news that Facebook’s Daily Active Users fell to 1.929bn in the three months to the end of December. This compares to 1.930bn in the previous quarter.

This is the first time Facebook has experienced such a fall; a clear sign that this particular platform is reaching its mature phase.  Of course, it was bound to happen eventually.  After all, there are only so many active daily users you can have from a global population of 7.7 billion (some of whom do not have good internet access).

Rising Platforms

TikTok’s owner ByteDance, by contrast, saw revenues grow by 70% in 2021 (although even this is slower than the spectacular growth seen previously).

Facebook is primarily about written communication, albeit pictures, images and gifs are often shared on the platform.  TikTok is, of course, mainly about the short form video clip.  The BBC recently reported that Facebook’s owner has warned of pressures on revenues precisely because of stiffer competition from TikTok and YouTube.

Are these signs, therefore, of a wider trend?  Are we seeing a real sea-change in the way in which we communicate?  A transition from a culture of communication based on the written word to one where visual images and video become the dominant mode of interaction?

A visual future?

Are these portents of things to come?  Of a world where communication is primary achieved with the video clip and the streamed podcast?  Some would argue it is already happening, after all it is now quite easy for anyone to broadcast their own content on YouTube, TikTok or Twitch and it will only become easier with each passing year.  Now everyone is a content publisher.

There are also signs of generational differences.  Anecdotally we are hearing that younger people are more likely to engage with social media like TikTok and YouTube.  Social media such as Facebook, with its higher reliance on written content, still has an appeal for older generations but is, perhaps, less suited for a generation addicted to the video clip. 

But can we put any hard numbers to these claims?

Generational differences

A Synchronix survey from last year looked at social media use amongst gamers.  We wanted to understand the extent to which people of different ages engaged with social media to discuss or exchange information about gaming.  The results showed some clear generational differences in terms of preference.

Graph of gamer social media preferences by age

Platforms

YouTube: Emerges as the most popular social media platform for gamers under the age of 45.  Older gamers also engage with it extensively but, for the over 45s, is relegated to the number two spot. 

Instagram: is the second most popular media with the under 25s.  It is less popular with the 24-35 age group but still ranks 3rd overall.  Its popularity clearly diminishes with age, especially amongst the over 45s.

TikTok:  If anything, TikTok illustrates the most significant generational differences of all.  It is used by nearly 40% of the under 25s, placing it neck and neck with Instagram within this age group.  This drops to 26% amongst the 25-34’s (still significant).  However, its popularity wanes markedly in older age groups.

All three brands of visual based social media reflect the same overall pattern.  Their popularity is greatest in the youngest age groups and lowest amongst the over 45s.

Facebook:  Despite the recent slight dip in use, Facebook is popular with all ages.  However, it is not even one of the three most popular platforms for the under 25s, although this soon changes when we start to consider older age groups.  It is the second most popular platform for the 25-44 age group and the most popular with the over 45s.  Its higher reliance on written content lends it greater appeal for older audiences.

Twitter: Twitter is fourth most popular in the under 25s but drops in popularity with older age groups (especially the over 45s).  This is interesting as it shows that Twitter, which is primarily text based, demonstrates that written communications retain a certain degree of popularity with the younger generation.  The short form tweet, with its soundbite feel, is still able to resonate with generation Z in a way that other forms of written communication appear to struggle to do.

The future

One thing is now clear. Visual media has become critical for effectively communicating with Gen Z.  However, they are not entirely abandoning the written word.  Their preference for Twitter above Facebook is likely influenced by a texting culture in which short soundbites are strongly preferred to longer written posts.

The recent dip in Facebook usage likely reflects this generational behaviour shift.  However, the downtick in Facebook engagement should not be exaggerated.  The fact is that Facebook remains very popular amongst the over 25s and the most important social media for engaging with the over 45s.

As newer generations of internet users reach adulthood, it is likely that different generational preferences will become increasingly marked.  Marketeers will increasingly need to adapt strategies to employ a different mix of social media channels depending on the generation of customers they are aiming to communicate with.

So, a campaign aimed at the over 45s may need to focus more on Facebook, YouTube and WhatsApp.  However, a campaign aimed at a Gen Z audience would need to take very different approach, and would do better to focus mainly on Instagram, TikTok and YouTube.

Given the rapid pace of change we have experienced in the world of social media over the past decade, we can expect further significant changes over the next few years.  The next TikTok is likely to be a platform that facilitates video and/or audio interaction rather than something more reliant on the written word.   

As Gen Z comes of age and as younger generations follow, we will move to a culture highly dependent on streaming, video communication and visual interaction.  Perhaps we will eventually see this evolve into virtual reality driven experiences.  In fact, I’m sure this will happen at some point.  And although I suspect it is still a good way off, I would not be surprised if we found ourselves living in such a world twenty years from now.

About Us

Synchronix Research offers a full range market research services and market research training.  We can also provide technical content writing services.

You can read more about us on our website.  

You can catch up with our past blog articles here.

If you like to get in touch, please email us.

Sources

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60255088#

Playbook – UK Gaming Market Report 2021, Synchronix Research

https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population

https://backlinko.com/instagram-users

https://backlinko.com/tiktok-users

https://www.globalmediainsight.com/blog/youtube-users-statistics/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/funds/exclusive-tiktok-owner-bytedances-revenue-growth-slowed-70-2021-sources-2022-01-20/


Forest fire as an example of climate change effects

Climate Change in 2021

Leave a Comment / Climate Change / By

The Latest IPCC Report

On 9th August, the IPCC released its latest report on climate change.  Based on a detailed assessment of the available scientific evidence, it concluded that we are virtually certain to see global warming of around 1.5oC over the next 20 years.

In the longer-term global warming could rise even further, potentially exceeding a 2oC increase by 2050.  And, if it does exceed 2oC, that is bad news.  At that level the report warns, “heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health”.  Indeed, under one possible scenario we might be seeing a rise of as much as 4.4oC by the end of the century.

The report warns:

“…unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.”

Who are the IPCC and why does this report matter?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.  All 195 countries around the world support its work. Scientists from all around the world contribute to and assess its reports.

Every few years it publishes a detailed up-to-date assessment of where we stand.  The first report was published in 1992 and this latest report (August 2021) is the sixth.  As a result, its reports represent the most up-to-date, detailed and authoritative assessment of climate change available. 

The impact of global warming

Delving into the detail of the report reveals some rather frightening statistics that bring home just how significantly climate change is impacting our world:

  • In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least the past 2 million years.
  • Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000 years.
  • Global mean sea level has risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in at least the last 3000 years.

Over the past century, our world has experienced an average temperature rise of around 1oC.  We have only taken action to curb that increase relatively recently.

Where are we now?

Many nations have taken action to drive down CO2 emissions over the past two decades.  And, of course, the COVID pandemic temporarily forced a significant short-term reduction whilst much of the world was in lockdown.  So, we have made some progress.

Between 2000 and 2010, global CO2 emissions increased by just over 30%.  Between 2010 and 2019, emissions have continued to increase but, overall, at a much slower rate (10%).  Indeed, since around 2014/2015 the rate of increase has flattened significantly.

However, although CO2 emissions are no longer rising by much, they are not yet falling.  We are still a very long way from achieving anything approaching net zero.

What does the future hold?

Where we go from here will, of course, depend very much on what we do.  Do we take dramatic action now?  Do we aim for sharp and significant reductions in emissions and take the economic and financial pain that such action would surely demand? 

Or do we prioritise protecting the economy as far as possible and aim for much more gradual reductions? Depending on how fast (or how slowly) we act, the IPCC has calculated five possible scenarios.  Everything from a best-case scenario, based on what is likely to happen if we take drastic action fast.  Ranging through to a worst-case scenario, where CO2 levels continue to rise until late on in the century before finally seeing any reduction.

IPCC Climate Change Forecasts - 5 possible scenarios

Drastic Action

If we take drastic action now and achieve a global wide net zero for CO2 emissions by 2050 then the best-case scenario will apply.  However, so far, only 137 out of 195 countries have published a target of achieving net zero by 2050 (and even this is still under discussion in 72% of these countries).   Also, China (the world’s largest source of CO2 emissions) has set its net zero target for 2060, not 2050.

So, at present, the best-case scenario is unlikely.  Indeed, even under this scenario we are still almost certain to see a mean global temperature rise of 1.5oC relative to the average temperature of the world in the period 1850-1900.  It is now already too late to prevent that.

Given recent trends and current government targets around the world (and assuming those targets are all met), we are more likely to be looking at something similar to Scenario 2 or 3. 

In Scenario 2, we would need to see a more gradual but sustained reduction in emissions, achieving global net zero by around 2070 or 2075.  If we achieve that, we can just about avoid a temperature rise of 2oC.

Scenario 3 would assume a very limited/modest rise in CO2 emissions, gradually flattening as the century wore on, followed by a steady reduction in emissions from around 2060 onwards.  In this scenario we would not achieve net zero until the end of the century.  If this happened, we would see a rise of over 2oC by 2060, approaching a potentially catastrophic 3oC by the end of the century.

How will global warming affect us?

Depending on where you are in the world you are likely to experience different effects from global warming. 

Global warming has led to significant Artic ice melt but less significant melt in the Antarctic.  So it is not affecting us all equally.

However, places that have seen problems with extreme heatwaves leading to wildfires will see these events become increasingly common.  Places that have experienced more spells of torrential rain, leading to serious flash flooding will see such problems become a more frequent occurrence in future.

For northern Europe, global warming is likely to mean more heat waves in summer and fewer cold snaps in winter.  It will also mean more rain, especially in the winter, and more flash flooding following heavy downpours.  We can also expect to see more coastal flooding in those areas that have experienced such problems in the past twenty years or so.

For southern Europe and the Mediterranean region droughts, increased aridity and an increased incidence of wildfires in summer are very likely if global warming hits 2oC.  Agriculture in these areas is likely to become a lot tougher and the threat posed by wildfires will mean scenes like those in Greece in the summer of 2021 will become increasingly common.

Right now, we stand at a crossroads.  We can, if we so choose, act and limit the impact of global warming to something closer to that forecast in Scenario 1 or 2.  However, if we decide to act more slowly and opt to place short term economic and financial concerns before the longer-term environmental impacts, we may well be facing a serious crisis situation by the middle of the century.

In the light of this report, the decisions made at Cop26 this autumn will have a critical impact on our future. 

About Synchronix

Synchronix is a full-service market research agency.  We believe in using market research to help our clients understand how best to prepare for the future. 

You can read more about us on our website.  

If you wish to follow our weekly blog you can view all out past articles on our website here.

If you have any specific questions about our services, please contact us.

Sources

IPCC

Our world in data

Visualcapitalist

Thames Barrier

London Floods

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Last Sunday London experienced serious flash floods following torrential downpours.  The London Fire Brigade received over 1000 flood related calls.  Two hospitals had to close for patient admissions.  Many roads and underground stations had to close, as did the Blackwell Tunnel.

But was this just a freak natural event or a symptom of global warming?  Is it a portent of things to come?

Global warming means heavier showers

It is difficult to specifically link these flash floods directly to global warming. 

However, a warmer climate will mean that showers, when they happen, will tend to be heavier over time.  According to the Grantham Institute, warmer air can hold more moisture.  That means that an increase in temperature of 1-1.5 degrees centigrade will lead to storms being about 10% stronger than they would otherwise have been.

Since 1880, global temperatures have warmed by a total of around 1oc but over the next century global warming looks like it will increase average temperatures by between 1.5oc and 5.5oc.  On that basis we can expect showers to become, typically, 10% – 50% heavier. 

So, London could be seeing a lot more flash floods by the end of the century.

Polar melt and rising seas

Climate change brings another threat to London beyond flash flooding from torrential rain.  A warmer climate is melting ice in the northern hemisphere, which is causing sea levels to rise.

London is built around the Thames Estuary and, for much of its history, it has served as a major port as well as the nation’s capital.  As sea levels rise, the danger of flooding from the Thames becomes more significant.

In the period 1971 to 2009, glacial melt is thought to have occurred at a rate of 226 gigatonnes per year.    Over the period 1971-2012 Arctic sea ice has been melting at a rate of 3.5 to 4.1% per decade.  Warming has also affected areas like Alaska and Siberia, melting permafrost over time.  Average temperatures in these places are thought to be on average 2-3oc higher now than they were back in 1971.

Of course, all this melting ice inevitably means more water in the oceans.  During the past centuries it is estimated that sea levels have risen by an average of 1.7mm per year.  It is also accelerating and by 2010 it was rising by over 3mm per year.

For a city that has always been vulnerable to flooding, like London, higher sea levels spell trouble ahead.

London’s Defences

The Thames Barrier represents London’s most prominent and important flood defence.  These gates can be shut to protect London from North Sea storm surges.   As sea levels rise London will need to rely on the barrier more and more and we can expect to see the gates being closed more frequently to prevent surges from flooding the capital.

Water levels in the Thames Estuary are estimated to have risen by around 15cm between 1911 and 2018.  So without the Thames Barrier, London would have experienced some significant floods over the past couple of decades.  It is estimated that around 16% of London properties lie within the flooding risk zone protected by the Barrier.

Since its construction in the early 80s the gates have been used increasingly over time.  So far, 2014 stands out as the most active year (during which it was raised/closed as many as 50 times).  During the past couple of decades the barrier has typically been needed about 7-8 times a year.

Graph of Thames Barrier gate closures

How long will the barrier hold?

The good news for Londoners is that the Thames Barrier is reasonably future proof.  It is likely to continue to protect London well until 2070, although the plan is to start looking for its replacement / upgrade in 2040.

Between 2035 and 2050 it is anticipated that London will need to improve flood defences such as raising flood walls and other smaller barriers and reshaping the riverside.

In terms of local conditions, it is estimated that London might expect 59% more rainfall by the end of the century.  By 2100, the water level in the Thames Estuary might be as much as 1 metre or more higher than it is today.  The proportion of London properties at risk will increase from 16% to 23% over that time and the Thames Barrier, as it is today, will not be able to protect Londoners any longer under those circumstances. 

In less than 20 years from now London will need to start thinking seriously about alternatives.

About Synchronix

Synchronix is a full-service market research agency.  We believe in using market research to help our clients understand how best to prepare for the future. 

You can read more about us on our website.  

If you wish to follow our weekly blog you can view all out past articles on our website here.

If you have any specific questions about our services, please contact us.

Sources

Earth.org

Environment Agency

Independent

IPCC

NASA

Understanding Change and the post-COVID Normal

Leave a Comment / Market Research / By

There is little doubt that 2020 has brought considerable changes to our world.  Who could have predicted how dramatically COVID would have turned our world upside down at the start of 2020?

Hopefully, as 2021 begins, we can see some light at the end of the tunnel.  The new vaccines are starting to roll out (not a moment too soon) and perhaps we might dare hope for a return to normality during the spring.

But what will that normality look like?  Quite apart from the radical disruption to our social and working lives that COVID has wrought, it has quite likely accelerated and even inspired some long-term changes that will remain with us for years to come.

Remote working was forced on a large section of the working population for much of 2020.  By and large it worked.  Will office culture ever be the same again?  Or will the future of office work point towards an inexorable march toward the remote/virtual office.  The practical savings for office-based business are potentially huge – just think how much many businesses spend every year on prime location office space and business travel.  Imagine if you could slash that by cost by half or, perhaps, by even more than half.  Well, it turns out you probably can.  Tools and technologies that support the virtual office will become increasingly critical.  Who knows, in five or ten years from now we could all be holding international business meetings in VR simulated boardrooms.  In fact, I predict we will.

Many businesses have had to adapt to a world where trading online has, at times really been the only option.  Buying and selling at fixed locations and in-person has been hard hit.  Post COVID it will surely bounce back to some extent but the long-term trend to online retail has surely been greatly accelerated.  ONS figures showed that the % of UK retail business done online rose from around 16% in 2017 to 19% in 2019.  Without COVID we might have expected it to climb to around 21% for 2020 maybe.  However, the pandemic has meant the final 2020 figure is likely to end up closer to 26% or perhaps even a little higher.  

I’m sure people will want to return to the bricks and mortar shops to some degree once the pandemic is over – but online commerce has undeniably come of age and will, without question, form an increasingly critical part of any future marketing.  In future the look, feel and effectiveness of online sales and marketing will be just as important (and probably more so) than any in-person selling.

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